Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 101722.803873 107171.886586 112613.648724 118452.290768 124535.717115 130683.698168 137362.837029
2025-08-10 92544.718439 100874.188090 109418.625184 118827.833183 128887.337375 139308.641123 150909.689131
2025-08-17 85760.443085 96044.693665 106820.817038 118931.934304 132141.308456 146088.530867 161905.093014
2025-08-24 81361.677914 93198.260364 105821.458085 120248.408395 136242.176461 153391.321704 173130.719417
2025-08-31 76842.201625 89809.895228 103857.420105 120151.313090 138474.300281 158385.654038 181601.238293
2025-09-07 74060.473097 88111.713578 103544.197277 121677.629764 142323.848632 165021.036433 191779.243646
2025-09-14 71343.583975 86289.732867 102915.361946 122684.310803 145449.270698 170740.311255 200856.396241
2025-09-21 68418.963122 84057.883228 101665.053458 122836.794027 147477.499123 175122.303684 208348.587173
2025-09-28 65803.207994 82048.356800 100546.830439 123024.891014 149446.426956 179360.426488 215624.406886
2025-10-05 64414.410603 81401.828995 100945.310817 124918.751739 153349.602904 185801.576843 225444.453932
2025-10-12 62959.540865 80596.428559 101088.014385 126452.391851 156788.147220 191682.496702 234618.036163
2025-10-19 61278.706011 79440.072837 100744.687289 127347.552299 159425.709030 196599.511223 242658.327574
2025-10-26 59261.095567 77821.028256 99807.475739 127507.167862 161185.262456 200506.598149 249567.167241
2025-11-02 57509.647592 76468.482261 99140.742100 127949.825896 163255.192517 204772.133915 256916.844308
2025-11-09 55705.799871 74984.408386 98253.996107 128070.469365 164893.384106 208496.447958 263614.132733
2025-11-16 54643.773487 74391.243567 98430.969058 129471.194096 168076.342781 214079.411176 272570.741317
2025-11-23 52923.850255 72901.102320 97436.563611 129368.594613 169371.826830 217350.826961 278719.380565
2025-11-30 52109.719211 72542.048861 97836.368113 130989.847966 172792.522823 223219.372875 288060.817329
2025-12-07 51089.389689 71878.016295 97818.304018 132058.969804 175510.353526 228225.866622 296365.119431
2025-12-14 49714.777392 70706.363842 97113.157990 132220.904857 177063.985285 231783.225489 302886.812497
2025-12-21 48423.999914 69605.422911 96462.962692 132420.651623 178640.962586 235357.215438 309432.506953
2025-12-28 47975.142533 69606.760622 97226.482443 134431.608233 182520.153051 241816.896074 319606.101496
2026-01-04 47388.353663 69400.760085 97702.619006 136059.827385 185910.255521 247677.005594 329062.269642